Towards the end of recent years, the textile market is facing a big test of life and death.

The textile market fluctuated in 2018. At the end of 2018, many market participants found that the textile market is facing “ life and death test ” from multiple indicators.



Winter is coming, and it's not just the temperature < br />.


There is also a textile man's fervent heart < br />.


On December 9, snow fell simultaneously in many cities throughout the country. On the same day, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued the blue warning of cold wave again, and most parts of the country ushered in a long period of cold weather, so down and cotton clothes became the first choice of the public, which made the textile people who had been waiting for & ldquo; cold winter & rdquo; New Year's textile people ushered in some hope. But what about the facts?



Starting from the third quarter, the textile market has witnessed a decline in industry prosperity, poor terminal orders, rising manufacturers'inventory, etc. & ldquo; cooling & rdquo; signals.



The monthly prosperity index of China Shengze Chemical Fiber Index (rdquo) of Ministry of Commerce shows that from June onwards, the prosperity index has entered a downward path, and has been falling for six consecutive months, which is beyond the expectation of market participants. We can see from the chart below that from 2010 to 2018, the second half of the boom has never been imagined to decline all the way.



The main reasons for this phenomenon are < br />.


In the first three quarters, domestic and foreign brand merchants hoarded goods more vigorously, which led to weak intentions of fabric hoarding in autumn and winter, and the domestic market demand contracted annually.



In August-September, the soaring PTA of raw materials stimulated the soaring market of polyester filament and dragged down the pricing mechanism of fabric market.



From September to December, the price of raw materials declined steadily, falling to the lowest point in recent years, which restrained the mood of placing orders in the peak season. The insufficient order-taking of manufacturers led to poor enthusiasm for production, marked decline in start-up of springing-up, warp knitting, circular machines, etc. The market atmosphere also declined sharply. The fact that the peak season was not strong made the textile market of this year's & ldquo; the cold winter & rdquo; came earlier and more vigorously than in previous years. 。



Shen Zongzhong, head of a textile enterprise in Wujiang area, said: & ldquo; No way, although the weather is cold, but the market is colder. Now the downstream clothing business is general, and we dare not stock up more. So we can only reduce the quotation and sell some stock to make the year a little easier. And today last year, Danbu is obviously the market's & ldquo; fragrant baboon & rdquo; & price hikes, scrambling, queuing & hellip; & hellip; market quotations can be described as a lyric & ldquo; you are like a fire in the winter, the hot orders warmed my heart & rdquo;!



But this year, although the market around the Double Eleventh Movement ushered in a wave of goods, but come fast, go fast. The production capacity of gallbladder cloth is relatively large. One water-jet loom can produce about 300 meters a day. That is to say, a factory with 100 looms has to hoard 210,000 meters without an order for a week. Shen always frowns.



It can be seen that the cold winter did not take away much sorrow, the existing pain has been difficult to erase. In addition to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangzhou, Fujian and other fabrics cluster areas also perform poorly.



The market in Xiaoshao continues to be depressed and the volume of shipments continues to decline slightly. It is reported that there are not many new orders from local trading companies, and the weaving factories are mainly inventory clearing. The dyeing factories have few orders and the delivery time is very fast.



There are not many orders in Hebei area. Although there are many inquiries and quotations, the order is relatively slow. Low and medium count yarn cards are the main products for sale. There is still room for price reduction. The order of dyeing mills is obviously unsatisfactory, and the delivery date is about one week.



We also predicted that the second half of this year will be the same as last year, at least not so obvious decline, but the actual situation is chilling, although the overall annual sales are similar to last year, but the second half of the market is too bad. Dai Zongzhong, owner of a woolen textile mill in Changxing, said, & ldquo, fearing that the market will be worse next year. ”



Next year will be worse?



Be careful of these & ldquo; time bomb & rdquo; put you & ldquo; Pit & rdquo; and < br />.


As the saying goes, & ldquo; frozen three feet is not a day's cold. & rdquo; the second half of the market makes textile people feel desolate. Now OPEC & ldquo; Guanxuan & rdquo; production reduction, chemical fiber market is basically successful, fabric export orders are rushed out before the Spring Festival, coupled with the arrival of cold air, winter prediction may come true, for the fabric market in 2019, may be good support, but then, enterprises have to be more careful about a few occasional & ldquo; Bomb & rdquo;



1. The trade situation between China and the United States has been delayed. Although the foreign trade market has been boosted, the 25% tariff increase only delayed the negotiations and has not been completely abolished. Follow-up efforts should focus on the negotiation situation in the next 90 days and whether the 10% tariff will increase to 25%;



2. Looms from other countries have been put on the horse one after another, which has formed a great impact on conventional chemical fibre products. Although the market weakened in the second half of the year, many textile bosses lament that it is very difficult to run factories in other places, but it is impossible to discard the factories and equipment invested earlier, and the market capacity will come up a little bit, which will have a greater impact on the market;



3. Crude oil, as the upstream of the chemical fiber industry chain, is also the most uncertain product. It involves too many factors such as marginal politics and global economy. The price of crude oil often fluctuates greatly, which also affects the price of large textile raw materials such as polyester filament.Therefore, we should be cautious about stockpiling the last wave of raw materials before the Spring Festival, and carelessly you will become the most realistic & ldquo; Pan Chivalry & rdquo; < br />.


4. The textile and apparel industry has returned to the product era from the commodity era, and the performance-price ratio of fabric products will enter an extreme era. Although small profits and high sales are the correct way of annual sales, making products bigger and stronger has become the ldquo; sharp weapon & rdquo; of many enterprises'orders. When you're walking in placeOthers are already ahead.