In September, Caixin China's service industry PMI rose to 53.1, a three month high.
2018-10-11 12:11:10
The September Finance New China General Service Business Activity Index (PMI) released on October 8 recorded 53.1, which was 2 percentage points higher than August, a three-month high, but still weaker than the beginning of the year and lower than the historical average.
This trend is different from that of Statistics Bureau's service industry PMI. The index of business activity of service industry released by the National Bureau of statistics in September was 53.4, unchanged from last month.
Despite the accelerated growth of the service sector, due to the weakening growth of the manufacturing sector, Caixin China's comprehensive PMI recorded 52.1% in September, up from 0.1% in August, indicating that economic activity is still weak.
New orders for services increased slightly, the highest in four months. Some enterprises have reflected that the advent of new products and the increase of customers have promoted the growth of new businesses. The growth rate of new orders in manufacturing industry stagnated in September. The overall growth rate of new orders in September was relatively low, rising slightly from the 26-month low in August.
In September, service sector employment declined for the first time in two years, while manufacturing employment fell to a 14-month low. Respondents from both industries indicated that the number of employees declined due to the restructuring of the company and the absence of vacancies after voluntary departure. The overall scale of employment has been the highest since August 2016.
In September, the input cost of service industry accelerated to rise, recording the second increase since May 2012 (next only to January this year). According to the respondents, the increase in costs is mainly related to the rise in fuel and raw materials and the increase in pay. The input cost increase of manufacturing industry has slowed down compared with August, but it is still remarkable. Combined with the two, the overall input cost accelerated in September, reaching a three month high.
Although cost pressures have risen, the level of fees charged by service enterprises has remained generally stable, and some enterprises have even reduced prices to maintain price competitive advantage. Manufacturing ex-factory prices have risen slightly, while overall, output prices have risen slightly, the lowest since June 2017.
The two major industries generally expressed optimism about the production and operation prospects in the next 12 months. However, due to concerns about the impact of the Sino-US trade war and the tightening of environmental protection policies, the confidence of manufacturing industry fell to the lowest level this year in September. The confidence of service industry enterprises also declined from August, which is weaker than the historical data. The combination of the two prospects reduced the confidence level to the lowest level in 10 months.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chairman and chief economist of Monita Research, a think tank of Caixin, said that the comprehensive output index of Caixin China has rebounded slightly from last month, indicating that the economy is still relatively stable, but the demand situation is not very optimistic, the cost pressure of enterprises is still high, and the deterioration of employment situation will test the determination of policy to promote transformation.