In 2018, when China's economic report card came out, the textile industry withstood the pressure and

Yesterday, China's much-watched economic report card for 2018 came out. On January 21, at a briefing on the operation of the national economy in 2018 held by the Information Office of the State Council, Ning Jitao, director of the State Statistics Bureau, said that the preliminary calculation showed that the gross domestic product in 2018 totaled 90.03 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6% over the previous year in terms of comparable prices, and achieved the expected development goal of about 6.5%. In the complex international and domestic environment, China's economic operation has achieved overall stability, stability and progress, and the main expected objectives of economic and social development have been better achieved.



1. China's economy in 2018: steady progress, joys and worries < br />.


According to analysts, the transcript is stressful and surprising.



First, the total economic volume has exceeded the 90 trillion yuan mark, GDP has increased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the market forecast and previous tasks are 6.5%. This shows that the economic operation remains within a reasonable range, the overall stable and steady trend of progress continues to show, and the main anticipated goal of development is better fulfilled. But quarter by quarter, quarter by quarter, year-on-year growth of 6.8%, second quarter growth of 6.7%, third quarter growth of 6.5%, fourth quarter growth of 6.4%. Continuous decline, and set a new low since the second quarter of 2009.



Second, imports and exports are stable, and the balance of payments is basically balanced. For the first time in the year, the total import and export volume exceeded 30 trillion yuan, and the scale of trade in goods reached a record high and remained the first in the world. The trade structure has been continuously optimized, the proportion of imports and exports of general trade has increased, the proportion of exports of mechanical and electrical products has increased, foreign exchange reserves have exceeded US$3 trillion, and the exchange rate of RMB is basically stable. However, the growth rate has declined. According to the classification items, exports in 2018 have become a drag on the economy. The contribution rate of net exports to economic growth is - 8.6%, which is expected to recover in 2019.



Third, investment continued to decline. Fixed assets investment increased by 5.9% year-on-year in 2018, down 1.3 percentage points from 2017. This is also a new low since 2000, among which, owing to pre-deleveraging and debt constraints, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has declined sharply. The growth rate of infrastructure in 2018 is only 3.8% year-on-year, which is 15.2 percentage points lower than the 19% growth rate in 2017. Real estate development investment before and after high and low, 2019 is facing downward pressure.



Fourth, domestic demand has gradually started to become a stabilizer of the economy. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 76.2%, up 18.6 percentage points from the same period last year. Total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.2% year-on-year in December, up 0.1 percentage points from November.



Fifth, industrial restructuring and shifting. Secondary industry shocks have declined, and tertiary industry has improved significantly, contributing more than 60%. The high-tech manufacturing industry, strategic emerging industries and equipment manufacturing industry grew rapidly, 11.7%, 8.9% and 8.1% respectively, compared with the previous year, but traditional manufacturing industries such as automobiles, railways, ships, aerospace and other transportation equipment did not perform well. The good news is that the second industry began to recover significantly in the fourth quarter of last year. Power generation rebounded to 6.2% in December, with both upstream and upstream output rising, with the beginning of strong cycle start.



Sixthly, the CPI of China's consumer price index for the whole year in 2018 rose by 2.1% compared with the previous year, which is in a moderate rising range, below the expected target of about 3%. The balance between supply and demand of industrial consumer goods is generally stable. Many industrial consumer goods are in excess of demand in terms of total supply and demand, and need to upgrade in terms of quality to better meet the consumer needs of the masses.



2. What do you think of the slowdown in industrial economic growth?



So, since September 2018, industrial growth has fallen below 6%. Does this mean that industrial growth has slipped out of a reasonable range? In response, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology, responded at a press conference held by the State Administration of Industry and Information Technology on January 16:



Since the second half of last year, especially after the third quarter, industrial growth has slowed down for several consecutive months under the combined effects of global economic growth slowdown, domestic active restructuring, risk prevention and other factors. This is also the fact that the anxiety of the business community has increased. How to look at this problem should be considered from the following dimensions.



First of all, the overall operation of the industrial economy remains within a reasonable range. The actual operation results are better than expected. When we set the target of industrial added value growth for the whole year of 2018, our expected target is 6%. From January to November, the national industrial added value increased by 6.3%. Even if it maintained a low growth rate in December, it is still guaranteed to accomplish the target tasks for the whole year.



In addition, among these indicators, some economic indicators are still relatively good, such as efficiency indicators. In the first 11 months, the profits of industrial enterprises in China increased by 11.8%, and the profit margin of main business income increased by 0.16 percentage points compared with the same period last year. For example, in terms of investment, driven by the improvement of enterprise efficiency, the acceleration of energy conservation and environmental protection transformation and the acceleration of the cultivation of emerging industries, manufacturing investment increased by 9% in the first 11 months compared with the same period last year.5%, which has risen to a higher level in recent years. In 2016 and 2017, the growth rate of industrial investment was relatively low, and now it has improved significantly.



Second, the current short-term fluctuations, some changes are the impact of external factors, but there are also some structural adjustment has to pay the price, we take the initiative to act. In the long run, the basic aspects of China's industrial development are good, and structural problems affecting the sustainable and healthy development of industry are gradually being solved. For example, we carry out a battle of pollution prevention and control, a large number of & ldquo; scattered Pollution & rdquo; enterprise clearance, to a certain extent, will affect the industrial output value of some industries and regions, but the clearance of these enterprises also makes room for the market for advanced compliance capacity.



Thirdly, our country's economy is in the transition period between old and new momentum. Some industries are slowing down the pull of growth, but at the same time, we should also see that some new momentum is steadily taking shape. Although in the short term, these new growth momentum is not enough to offset the impact of past declines in some industries, this positive factor is something we are very happy to see.



In terms of the overall industrial situation, the high-tech manufacturing industry has maintained a relatively rapid growth under the condition of the slow growth of the traditional manufacturing industry. In the first 11 months of 2018, the growth rate of value added of high-tech manufacturing industry reached 11.8%, which was obviously faster than that of the whole industry, and its proportion in the whole industry increased again, reaching 13.6%. So we say that while we see that some traditional industries have declined in their pulling role on the whole industrial economy, we should also see that new momentum is constantly fostering and the driving role is also increasing. Of course, the task of structural adjustment is still very arduous. It should be noted that China's industrial economy is large in scale and resilient enough to cope with various risks. In 2018, China's industrial added value is expected to reach 300 billion yuan, which will continue to be the first in the world. Over 220 major industrial products continue to be the world's leading producers, while we also have the world's most complete industrial system. Especially with the development of digital economy and the development of manufacturing industry's digitalization, networking and intellectualization, & ldquo; digital dividend & rdquo, we are still confident about the future development of manufacturing industry.



3. Textile industry becomes & ldquo; keeps stable & rdquo; backbone strength < br />.


In 2018, with years of accumulation and precipitation, China's textile industry withstood the pressure and played an active role in “ stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment, stable expectation ” and became the backbone of maintaining the stable operation of the economy. From January to November 2018, China's textile and apparel industry's economic operation shows that the internal and external markets of China's textile and apparel industry have performed well. The value-added growth rate of textile enterprises above the national scale has increased at a low level, the quality and efficiency of the operation of the whole industry has improved continuously, the investment growth rate of the whole industry has continued to rebound, and the main indicators have shown a steady trend of operation.



_Good performance of domestic and foreign markets < br />.


Since 2018, China's textile and apparel domestic demand market has shown a rapid growth trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitted textiles above the national quota increased by 8.1% from January to November, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. This growth rate has been slowing down since June 2018, but is still higher than that of the previous two years. Online retail continues to grow rapidly. According to recent data, the scale of online retail continues to expand. The proportion of physical online retail sales in retail sales of social consumer goods continues to rise from 8.3% in early 2015 to 18.2% in November 2018. Among them, the retail sales of online wear goods increased 21.2% from January to November, which was 3.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but the growth rate has been slowing down since the beginning of 2018.



Exports of textile industry continued to pick up. According to the data of China Customs Express, from January to December 2018, the total export volume of textiles and clothing was 276.731 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.52% compared with the same period last year. The layout of the international market is more and more optimized. In 1~11 months, China's exports of textile raw materials and textiles to the United States, the European Union and Japan increased by 8.8%, 2.9% and 3.5% respectively over the same period last year. For Vietnam, Indonesia and other &ldquo, &rdquo along the way, the export growth of emerging markets along the way was good, and the export volume increased by 26.5% and 21.5% respectively.



Value-added growth rate low growth < br />


The added value of textile industry continued to grow at a low level. From January to November 2018, the value-added of textile enterprises above the national scale increased by 3.0% year-on-year, slowing down by 1.9 percentage points compared with the same period last year and increasing by 0.1 percentage points compared with the third quarter of 2018. The chemical fibre and terminal industries grew rapidly. Since 2018, the growth rate of value-added in chemical fibre industry has maintained steady growth, from 0.5% in February to 8.0% in November, which is higher than that of textile industry by 5.0 percentage points; the growth rate of industrial textile industry is stable at about 8.2% and 8.4% in January to November; the growth rate of apparel and home textile industry is higher than that of the whole industry, but continues to slow down, 1 to 11%. Monthly growth rates of added value were 4.5% and 3.8% respectively. The market competitiveness of domestic equipment has steadily improved, and the added value of the industry supporting the textile machinery industry has increased by 10.7% year on year, which is higher than the growth rate of the whole industry by 7.7 percentage points.





In the major categories of products, except for the decline in garment production, they maintained growth. From January to November 2018, the output of cloth, nonwovens and chemical fibers of Enterprises above the scale increased by 1.4%, 9.7% and 7.6% respectively, and the growth rate increased by 0.2%, 9.1 and 4% respectively compared with the same period of last year.The output of yarn and dyed cloth increased by 0.6% and 2.3% respectively, slowing down by 3.5 and 3.4 percentage points compared with the previous year, while the garment output decreased by 3.0% and deepened by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous year.



_Continuous improvement of operation quality and efficiency



The overall economic growth of the textile industry is stable. From January to November 2018, textile enterprises with 37,000 households and above achieved a cumulative revenue of 51,117.5 billion yuan, an increase of 4.0% over the same period last year, a slowdown of 0.7 percentage points over the same period last year, and a total profit of 249.89 billion yuan, an increase of 7.9% over the same period last year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the same period last year.



Among the sub-industries, the profitability of the chemical fiber industry is stable, with the main business income and total profit increasing by 13.4% and 12.9% respectively from January to November compared with the same period last year; the garment industry has made a significant contribution to the profits, with a profit growth rate of 10.1% and a profit contribution of 44.5% to the whole industry. Although the growth rate of value-added in garment industry slowed down and output decreased, it achieved good economic benefits through improving quality and efficiency, brand operation, and supported the improvement of the whole industry. The transformation and upgrading of the printing and dyeing industry made positive progress, with the main business income and total profit increasing by 3.7% and 11.9% respectively, and continued to rise after reversing the negative growth trend of profits in August.



The operation quality of textile industry is basically stable. From January to November, the profit margin of textile enterprises above scale was 4.9%, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year; the turnover rate of total assets was 1.3 times per year, which was 0.1% faster than that of the same period last year; the income cost of 100 yuan main business was 88.4 yuan, which was 0.1% lower than that of the same period last year; the ratio of three fees was 7.0%; the ratio of assets and liabilities was 55.1%, slightly higher than that of the same period last year, which was still in a reasonable range.



Investment growth continued to rebound < br />.


According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics from January to November 2018, the total investment of fixed assets in textile industry increased by 5.4% year on year, the growth rate was lower than 0.9 percentage points in the same period of last year, but it continued the good situation that the investment growth rate has continued to rebound since 2018.



Among the main sub-industries, textile industry investment grew by 4.9% year on year, the growth rate was lower than 1.2 percentage points of the same period last year; chemical fiber industry investment increased by 34.9% year on year, the growth rate increased by 17.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and has maintained a high-speed growth range of more than 20% for eight consecutive months; garment industry investment scale has remained shrinking, the investment volume has decreased by 1.9% year on year, narrowing by 3% compared with the first half of the year.8 percentage points.