Early warning: the impact of tariff increases, the outbreak of central and western industries or wil

The year 2018 has ended, and the market has ended in a bleak state.



According to statistics from the Cotton Transport Center, this year has become the worst year since 2008. Of the 21 textile raw material products tracked, only two rose, with an increase of less than 6%, while all the other 19 products fell. Ninety percent of raw materials fell to the close, while national cotton fell 2.06 percent and foreign cotton fell 10 percent. Specific increases and decreases are as follows:



Whether it is upstream polyester raw materials or downstream pure polyester yarn market, or close "comrades-in-arms" cotton, viscose, are mostly in a downward state!



Nevertheless, 2018 has turned over and 2019 has arrived. Recently, with the joint efforts of China and the United States, there are many positive signals on the trade level. For example, the United States announced that it would postpone the imposition of a 25% tariff until March 2, while China also purchased 1.13 million tons of U.S. soybeans... All signs indicate that the Sino-U.S. trade frictions are moving towards a positive side.



Will the textile opportunities of 2019 be in foreign trade?



Trade War: Tariffs are like "a sword" hanging over textile and garment enterprises and trading companies, which may drop at any time
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In the period approaching the Spring Festival, the days of chemical fibre textile workers have not improved because of the relaxation of Sino-US trade. Now the market of the whole weaving Market is somewhat depressed.



Xiaobian believes that although tariff concerns can be reduced after the temporary truce between China and the United States, the two sides are expected to reach a compromise to some extent. At least, the dangerous trend of China and the United States sliding rapidly towards a new cold war has been curbed. The "export rush" against the United States is expected to ease slightly in the fourth quarter. However, the impact of tariff increases will gradually be concentrated in the first half of 19 years.



In addition, factors that have long-term impact on the operation of China's textile industry, such as rising factor costs, increasing pressure on environmental protection and difficult financing, will still exist. In 2019, the operating pressure of China's textile industry will increase compared with 18 years.



While praying for the spring in the foreign trade market, chemical fibre textile industry is more concerned about the domestic weaving market next year, which is a blowout in the central and western regions of China! < br />


In 2016, the textile market as a whole is in a boom cycle, and regular varieties need to be withdrawn with money. While the volume and price of products have been improved, the profit margin of enterprises has increased significantly. Take the water-jet loom as an example. In fact, the net profit of a water-jet loom is about 50-60 yuan per day before the market recovers on a large scale in 15 years. But in March-April of 18 years, the machine rate once rose to 120-150 yuan per unit. From 16 to the first half of 18 years, the weaving market was really "crazy".



It's a comfortable day to lie down and win, so in the past two years, with the frequent environmental stringent policies in the southeastern coastal areas, a large number of chemical textile workers poured into the Midwest, where there is no headache of environmental shutdown, where production costs are lower, where labor is cheaper. For a time, a large number of chemical fibre textile enterprises in the central and Western horse race enclosure, boosting the central and Western weaving capacity to usher in leap-forward growth.



The textile industry in the central and Western regions, which was previously unknown, rose rapidly almost overnight, and the huge textile cluster market began to appear. The weaving industry, which was supposed to reduce its production capacity due to the elimination of environmental protection, is actually brewing an appalling capacity rebound. Instead of shrinking, it has expanded a lot.



In the late years of 2018, we have recently discussed the factors affecting the trend of next year's market in the group. Some people say that the trade war, some say that the raw material end has soared and plummeted, and others say that the production of PX....The biggest negative factor in the weaving market next year is likely to be the concentrated outbreak of production capacity in the central and Western regions.



The textile industry in the central and Western regions, which was previously unknown, rose rapidly almost overnight, and the huge textile cluster market began to appear. The weaving industry, which was supposed to reduce its production capacity due to the elimination of environmental protection, is actually brewing an appalling capacity rebound. Instead of shrinking, it has expanded a lot.



In the late years of 2018, people have recently discussed the factors affecting the trend of next year's market in groups. Some people have said that the trade war, some have said that the soaring and plunging of raw materials, others have said that the production of PX-hellip; & hellip; and the biggest negative factor in the weaving market next year is likely to be the concentrated outbreak of production capacity in the central and Western regions!



The cake is so big. How should I divide it?



A large number of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have been transferred to Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and other areas. Thanks to the policy support of the local government, the looms transferred from the past have increased exponentially. Most of these looms are medium and low-end grey fabrics, while the current capacity is in excess of supply and demand, coupled with the surge of transfer capacity, the cake that was not enough will be more competitive.



In 2019, the transfer of production capacity in the Midwest will begin to mount one after another, so 2019 is a test for Jiangsu and Zhejiang grey cloth manufacturers!



Intensifying competition and eliminating the fittest



Although the production capacity of the Midwest will be put into operation in 2019, due to the absence of a complete industrial chain system and imperfect marketing channels in the Midwest, the products will eventually return to the coastal areas.



In addition, the chemical fibre textile enterprises in the central and western regions have invested a large amount of funds in the early stage, and many enterprises have carried a certain amount of debt. Therefore, they are bound to take the rapid withdrawal of funds as the first priority. It can be predicted that the 19-year market competition will be extremely fierce. Low-price competition is a war that hurts the enemy and loses 800 pairs. But it is also a war that has to be fought. Low-price competition will also lead to a new round of elimination.



Think of a textile man who wrote in his circle of friends: "2019 will be the most difficult year in the past ten years; 2019 will be the best year in the next ten years.



Chemical Fiber Textile Man, Hope to be ready for the battle! uuuuuuuuuuu