The price of polyester filament has gone up! But what is the odds of a complete turnaround in the po

On Monday, December 3, the average production and sales of polyester filament rose sharply to about 400%, and some factories even reached 600% or above. Specific production and marketing data: 300%, 600%, 400%, 200%, 350%, 320%, 380%, 500%, 470%, 450%, 550%, 420%.



The soaring production and marketing is absolutely the highest daily production and marketing since this year, almost instantaneously booming the whole polyester market!



Polyester filament manufacturers are bound to take the lead in responding. On that day, some manufacturers quoted 50-100 yuan/ton of supplementary increase, and some of them were closed.



On Tuesday, the price increase information of polyester filament Market sprang up like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. Most of the mainstream manufacturers have increased by 50-200 yuan per ton.



Of course, this wave of polyester industry chain can be & ldquo; turn over the ownership & rdquo; the market can not be separated from the good support of Sino-US trade friction to stop escalating. On the evening of December 1, local time, the heads of state of China and the United States met in Buenos Aires, Argentina. After the meeting, the heads of the Chinese economic and trade team said that the two heads of state discussed the Sino-US economic and trade issues and reached consensus.  



After a short period of joy, can the price of polyester filament rise further to recover the loss in the earlier period? Can PTA and MEG of polyester raw materials rise back to the previous high level? Here, I have to fall into some thinking points!



First, the price of crude oil & ldquo; one thought of heaven, one thought of Hell & rdquo;!



On the first trading day in December, crude oil soared by nearly 5%, up to 53.8, which was also expected. Only on the premise of good conditions did the Bulls fight back. On Monday, international oil prices rebounded strongly, with WTI crude oil futures rising $2.02 (+3.97%) to $52.95 per barrel in January and Brent crude oil futures rising $2.23 (+3.75%) to $61.69 per barrel in February.  



As we all know, in addition to the supply-demand relationship, there are often factors such as changes in the international political situation and financial speculation that affect oil prices; there are certain uncertainties in the political situation in these regions, which can easily affect the supply of oil. According to market experts, this Thursday's OPEC meeting for crude oil is “ life and death is at stake ” the decision that crude oil is now rebounding from around 50 has seen signs of stopping the decline. If the oil producing countries make a substantial decision to reduce production, crude oil will rise further; but if the reduction is less than expected or not, then oil prices will face a problem. Falling ldquo; Abyss & rdquo;.



The fluctuation of international oil price will inevitably affect the trend of polyester raw material end market, whether in futures or spot market, will be affected; this will have a corresponding impact on the polyester filament market more or less.



Second, the most critical guiding factor of demand!



For the polyester filament market, demand is the most critical guiding factor! The polyester market has been depressed for more than a month in the early stage. In the final analysis, the market demand in the downstream market is weak, which leads to a long period of production and marketing downturn in the market, and the inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers increases accordingly. Following the 3-day market shortfall, the price of raw materials is about to rise. With a series of positive boosts, the downstream market has exploded, and weaving factories have started to purchase raw materials. The market has entered a period of replenishment, and production and sales have increased dramatically.



Can the downstream market demand continue further, and how long will the purchasing action of weaving factories last? The most important concern, of course, is the start-up of the downstream market. According to the statistics, since November, the opening rate of the mainstream weaving Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is relatively stable, and the average opening rate of the market is above 60%. Among them, the starting rate of Shengze water-jet loom is around 80%, Changshu warp knitting around 5-70%, Xiaoshaoyuan around 60%, Haining warp knitting market around 5-60%, Changxing water-jet loom around 7-8%.



Although compared with the same period, the overall market start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang region is slightly lower; but if the downstream weaving market can maintain a stable start-up state during this period, it will certainly be a good existence for the polyester filament market, and the market production and marketing can move forward steadily just in need of purchasing. However, if the demand of the terminal market is weakened, the downstream weaving market enters the state of vacation ahead of time and reduces the starting rate, it will inevitably cause a blow to the purchase of raw materials.  



Anyway, I hope this upsurge is not short-lived & ldquo; one-day tour & rdquo; market, can give the polyester market a breathing opportunity! Of course, the future Sino-US trade frictions, the trend of crude oil prices, polyester raw surface fluctuations and downstream weaving start-up need close attention.