There are 20 days left, and 2019 will be over. &The key words of this year's textile industry are "high inventory", "low order", "production suspension", "holiday". When visiting customers, cotton textile technology learned that everyone's life is really difficult this year. Some people joked that "2019" is the most difficult year in 10 years, but also the best year in the next 10 years. &"The ending is the prelude. 2020 is crucial as the transition year of the new decade 10 and 20. What will happen to the textile industry next year? We can take a look at the future through the global economic situation.
The prosperity of the textile industry in the last century has made people look forward to it. Everyone is proud to work in the textile factory, but the history will not be simply repeated. The shadow of two slow-moving grey rhinoceros is enveloping the global economy, and also has an impact on the development of the textile industry & mdash; & mdash;
The first grey rhinoceros: the impact of uncertainty in the adjustment process of China US economic relations on global total supply and demand;
The second grey rhinoceros: the impact of manufacturing recession in Europe led by Germany on global economic growth;
The first grey rhinoceros
Uncertainty in the adjustment process of China US economic relations
▎ impact of uncertainty in China US economic relations on global total supply and demand
Since 2018, the deepest, longest and most uncertain factor that has plagued the global economy is undoubtedly the adjustment process of China US economic relations. So far, the two sides have conducted several rounds of consultation and negotiation (including two summit meetings and 13 rounds of high-level economic and trade consultations), which have been repeated many times.
At present, the scale of U.S. imports from China accounts for about 3% of the total global imports, and the proportion of U.S. and China's economy to the total global economy is also close to 40%. In addition, the scale of bilateral trade between China and the United States accounts for about 20% of the total trade between China and the United States. Therefore, only from the trade level, we can see the impact of the adjustment of Sino-U.S. economic relations on the operation of the global economy.
▲ China US economic integration (data source: wind)
Therefore, for the global economy in 2020, the first grey rhinoceros is the uncertainty of the adjustment process of the economic relations between China and the United States. If the process repeats intermittently again, and the short-term disharmony spreads to a wider range, it will inevitably cause a deep and medium-term negative impact on the global economy.
▎ impact on textile industry
The adjustment of economic relations between China and the United States also has a negative impact on China's textile industry. Most of China's chemical fibers, yarns, fabrics, carpets, industrial textiles, clothing and home textiles are included in the U.S. tax increase list. According to customs data, China's total annual trade in textile and clothing products exported to the United States is about $50 billion.
Under the background of trade friction between China and the United States, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the industry, and textile orders exported to the United States have declined significantly. Many manufacturers said that the reason for the sharp drop in orders this year was the Sino US trade war. Many overseas orders have been cancelled due to tariff reasons, and some orders are not exported to the United States, but the end customers are from the United States. It is self-evident that the long-term and uncertain trade war between China and the United States has brought pressure on textile enterprises.
According to the latest customs data, from January to October this year, China's total trade volume of cotton textiles and clothing exported to the United States was 9.7 billion US dollars, down 13.5% year on year, and the trade volume of cotton textiles and clothing imported from the United States was 64.39 million US dollars, down 27.9% year on year. Among them, from January to October, China imported 319000 tons of cotton from the United States, accounting for about 1 / 5 of China's total global cotton imports, down 34.9% year on year.
Of course, the trade friction between China and the United States is one of the reasons for the slowdown of China's export growth, but not the only one. It also includes factors such as the slowdown of global economic growth, the adjustment of international textile supply chain layout and so on. For example, the growth of International trade share in some emerging countries is outstanding at present.
The second grey rhinoceros
The decline of European manufacturing led by Germany
▎ the impact of the decline in European manufacturing led by Germany on global economic growth
Since 2018, Germany's manufacturing industry has begun to show a downward trend. Driven by this, European manufacturing PMI has fallen below 42%, the lowest level in a decade.
At present, the global manufacturing industry is at the end of industrialization 3.0. Although Germany, as a powerful industrialization country in this stage, proposed industry 4.0 in 2013, industrialization 3. 0 will also have a continuing adverse effect on Germany.
▲ High Tech Exports from Germany and imports and exports between Germany and China (data source: wind)
In 2018, the total global economy is about 85 trillion US dollars, of which the EU is about 19 trillion US dollars, accounting for 22%. In the European Union, the British economy accounts for one sixth, and the German economy accounts for one fifth. Correspondingly, brexit means that one sixth of the European integration economy will be separated. If Germany really falls into recession, it will be a double blow to the European economy.
What's more, due to the global financial crisis in 2008 and the European debt crisis in 2012, the policy orientation of the European Central Bank has been in a state of unconventional easing, and the policy space of the European Central Bank to deal with the recession is almost exhausted. Accordingly, the European economic policy will rely more on the stimulus of German fiscal policy and the policy coordination with other countries. However, since fiscal policy is still the short board of European economic integration, it is very difficult for the expectation of fiscal stimulus to really land.
Therefore, for the global economy in 2020, the second grey rhinoceros is the extent and duration of the manufacturing recession in Europe led by Germany. Once the extent and duration of the recession are far beyond its own tolerance, the negative impact will spread to the world.
▎ enlightenment of German industry 4.0 upgrading on China's textile industry
The global impact of the decline in European manufacturing remains to be seen, but Germany's industries4The transformation and upgrading of. 0, especially the layout of Germany's textile industry, can bring us another way of thinking.
In short, the futuretex plan of Germany defines the textile industry as "one of the most innovative industries in Germany". The application of textile products is not limited to garment production, but has been extended to the fields of medicine, construction, transportation, etc. The project plans to launch the first textile intelligent factory in 2024.
In the futuretex project, we propose to build a customer-centric flexible value chain, and set four research directions: future textile factory, digital manufacturing process, mass customization and new business model.
In the project plan, significant opinions are put forward: first, the new technology can change the discontinuous production process into the continuous production process, so as to completely change the production mode; second, 3D printing will reshape the structure of the future supply chain and change the global industrial layout; third, through the combination of various new technologies, the industrial chain with a given purpose can be shaped. Obviously, these ideas are far beyond the scope of "smart factory".
Modern commercial competition is no longer just the competition between factories, but the competition between industrial chains, even between models. Therefore, how to view the upgrading of value chain from a more comprehensive perspective is a problem that traditional manufacturing industries such as textile industry cannot ignore.
The year 2020 is coming, and the future situation is complex and changeable. Textile enterprises should pay attention to the changes of macro-economic situation at home and abroad, strengthen the research and thinking of medium and long-term development strategy, focus on the end consumer market, and optimize products. We should be well prepared to deal with the long-term complex environment, improve efficiency, increase effective factor input, and prevent various risks brought by the grey rhinoceros.
